[Deb Palmieri on Russia Table of Contents] The following article was published in the Russian Commerce News, January-February 2000. The Russian Commerce News is the official publication of The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce®. |
Only a short while ago, it seemed a given that President Yeltsin would finish his term in office through June 2000. Most analysts and inside observers agreed the president would never relinquish his post before then. It had seemed like the only predictable thing in Russia was the fact that despite ailing health, back door political machinations and other intrigues and maneuvers, Mr. Yeltsin was anchored firmly in his post.
So it was with amazement and disbelief that the world looked on as Mr. Yeltsin delivered his New Year's speech on December 31, to be his final speech in office, and announced his resignation. As a consolation to the many of us out there, who were caught completely off-guard, it appears that not even his wife, Naina, had an inkling either. Many wonder how much lead time the president himself had in the decision calculus.
There is an important lesson here. The Russian economic and political scene and its outcomes defy Western logic and our usual approaches and analytical techniques to understanding foreign societies and cultures. Russia is so highly complex and variable that we need improved methodologies and analytical approaches to better interpret and predict occurrences that are of critical importance to the United States and our business, foreign policy and political interests.
Our next major challenge vis-a-vis Russia is to calculate, with the highest-degree of accuracy, what types of policies and positions we can expect from Vladimir Putin, who will likely capture the election for presidency on March 26, and what this means for our own national interest.
We need to focus not just on Putin the personality, but also on Russian realities that have brought him to power at this juncture in Russian history and along which path of economic, political and social development the Russian nation is likely to be headed.
In the United States, we have often historically miscalculated or misunderstood Soviet/Russian intentions and objectives this century. It seems like often we find ourselves saying in regards to Soviet/Russian events, "it can never happen." As a general rule of thumb, we have underestimated the Soviet ability and will to achieve its goals; and therefore many would argue we have crafted suboptimal national foreign policies towards the Soviet Union or Russia in the long-run. We didn't think the Bolsheviks led by Lenin could carry off the Russian Revolution in 1917 or emerge as victors in the civil war that followed. We didn't think Stalin could build the industrial might of the Soviet Union to launch a superpower competitor to the United States in the global arena. We couldn't imagine in the late thirties that we would eventually align with the Soviet Union as a member of the Allied powers to defeat Hitler and the Axis powers, but we did. During the Cold War, both sides engaged in policies of distrust and confrontation and we said our interests could never fall into alignment. We couldn't imagine that the Berlin Wall would fall and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics would collapse and disintegrate. And then, we couldn't believe it was in our national interest to financially support democracy and market development in a big way in the nineties, so we didn't. It seems we were locked into thinking "we could never do this", or "they will never do that."
Now, as a nation, we need to decide how to react and interpret Putin, his policies, intentions and the best path forward for U.S.-Russian relations as we enter the new century. It's in our best interests to learn from the past, craft the best possible strategy and set of policies, and to fully assimilate the meaning of "never say never" or "never do this or that" when it comes to understanding and predicting things Russian. Putin is a man we must take very seriously. He is determined to resurrect the might of the Russian Federation. I have no doubt he will achieve his goal. We need to finally thoroughly understand Russia and its complexities and enigmas and work together cooperatively to guarantee global stability and prosperity.
Deborah Anne Palmieri
Russian Commerce News, January-February 2000
Copyright 2001 The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce®