[Deb Palmieri on Russia Table of Contents]

The following article was published in the Russian Commerce News, March-April 1996. The Russian Commerce News is the official publication of The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce®.

The Future of Yeltsin's Presidency

What is Yeltsin's strategy to win the June elections and can he pull it off? A wide range of opinions and growing debate is focused on this question as the polling date inches closer. One expert, Vladimir Kvint, in a New York Times editorial, predicted that no matter who is elected, Yeltsin will find a mechanism to remain in power. Franklin Templeton's guru Mark Mobius was recently quoted by Dow Jones as saying, "I would not be alarmed with the Communists coming back to power.... It might actually improve the 'rough and ready environment' of Russian stock markets."

While the outcome can't be predicted with certainty, aside from anyone's educated guess, it's clear that Yeltsin has a defined strategy to win and he's been in high gear to achieve that objective since early '96. Key aspects of his strategy are as follows.
  1. Pay attention to social welfare and the safety net. Do something for displaced Russians. At his annual New Year's address he proclaimed, "The main task in 1996 is to make every poor Russian live better." He pledged to pay pension and wage arrears, restore devalued savings, improve living standards and curtail corruption.

  2. Eliminate incompetence in government. Poor agricultural performance in '95? One casualty was sacked Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Nazarchuk, blamed for the poor harvest. Numerous regional officials accused of misusing federal budget funds and many others have been canned.

  3. Get rid of the old guard; bring in fresh blood, new appointees and hence regenerate public confidence. A massive shuffle of officials including resignations, firings and substitutions has yielded a significant change in the government's cast of characters. Primakov in place of Kozyrev; Kadannikov instead of Chubais; Filatov gone as presidential chief of staff; Bychkov sacked as chair of Roskomdragmet; a new Transportation Minister, Nikolai Tsakh; a new Privatization Minister, Aleksandr Kazakov; to name only a few.

  4. Seek resolution of the war in Chechnya, and find a peaceful solution. Yeltsin is attempting to fashion numerous alternatives towards this end, although he has not yet been successful.

  5. Form a coalition with democratic forces. He's trying to do this with Shumeiko and the New Course movement and others.

  6. Inspire confidence in the international community. Russia's admission to the Council of Europe helped towards this end, as did the IMF's extension of a $10.2 billion loan to demonstrate confidence in Yeltsin's government.

  7. Pay attention to personal health so people won't think I'll be dead in two months. By anyone's accounts, Yeltsin, following a long recuperation, appears to be healthy, energetic and vigorous, despite scare reports and Western medical opinions that theoretically he should be long gone.

Will Yeltsin prevail? While absolutely anything can happen between now and June, if I had to wager my best guess, I'd cast it for a Yeltsin win. It all boils down to this. He's a seasoned political leader; a tough strategist; a strong fighter with a clear set of reform goals. He has a track record and a lot of friends domestically and internationally. He's not perfect, but under the most difficult of circumstances, he's exhibited some of the best leadership qualities of any Russian/Soviet head of state this century.

Deborah Anne Palmieri
Russian Commerce News, March-April 1996

Copyright 1999 The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce®