[Deb Palmieri on Russia Table of Contents]
The following article was published in the Russian Commerce News, March-April 1998. The Russian Commerce News is the official publication of The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce®. |
Deconstructing Yeltsin
It was extraordinary, really it was. It seemed like any Monday following a Sunday and most Americans had barely sipped their morning coffee or opened up the daily newspaper. Like a bolt of lightening out of the clear blue sky, news of Yeltsin's dismissal of his entire government burned through the news wires and into our groggy consciousness. That first day we wondered, in shock and amazement, what did it mean? Was it good or bad? Would Russia's sky fall in?
It became clear pretty quickly. It mattered, but it didn't. It was a sweepingly significant act, but daily life in Moscow and everywhere else across Russia hummed along, with barely a ripple of observance by those most seemingly affected. International journalists and observers swung into action and promulgated explanation after explanation, one more brilliant and sensational than the next. The Russian stock market dipped, but recovered almost right away.
You will read in this issue more theories and information than you will know what to do with explaining why Yeltsin did what he did; what it means and who's a winner and a loser. The honest truth is that we'll never really know why. All we can do is react, and best predict how we might be affected in business and politics in the short and long-term. Even Yeltsin's inner circle didn't anticipate his decision, much less be able to render cogent analysis about it. As we try to reconstruct Yeltsin's thinking undoubtedly there are a lot of answers to the explanatory puzzle, some more robust than others. In our special supplement, you'll encounter just about all of the prevailing opinions from Moscow and abroad.
What kinds of unique pressures might have compelled Yeltsin to act as he did, that haven't already been mentioned? Modern societies and complex nations have created compelling challenges for political leaders. Always at centerstage, they are simultaneously powerful and autonomous, but dependent and manipulated. They are increasingly subject to the reality that their staffs and offices choreograph, control and schedule their every move. Cadres of well meaning helpers and advisors now filter, screen, direct and influence leaders' decision outcomes every day. There they are, telling the most powerful people in the world what to say, and what to do, and in hundreds of ways on a daily basis, practically taking their decision making ability out of their own hands and auctioning it off among hosts of interest groups, and turf battlers. And presidents, (and senators and elected officials) are almost always, most of the time, good natured, compliant, wistfully giving in as they play the game.
But every once in a while they just get sick and tired of compliance. They break ranks. They assert their independence and their will. They decide it's time to show everyone out there who's in charge and who's the boss. Leaders are, after all, by virtue of their achievements, abilities, drive and instincts, independent people who know what they want and how to get it. And all those people who surround them, are, after all, there because of and only because of them.
I think it's true that Mr. Yeltsin finally decided that, in true Russian patriarchal form, enough was enough with all the political infighting, the intrigue, bickering, upstaging, maneuvering and the twisting of his real intentions. He decided to stand up, take charge, and remind everyone who is the boss. The volcano erupted. A sweeping wave of change was initiated. Guided only by his instincts as a supreme political strategist, his intuition and experience drove him towards his decision outcomes. Whether it was right or not for Russia, only time will tell.
Will it bode well for American companies? Certainly, the direction of change is positive and not negative. It supports objectives and aims we value, like better reforms, more efficiently managed. In Yeltsin's words, "dynamism, initiative, new ideas and a fresh approach is needed." Why, one might think it were Adam Smith, Theodore Roosevelt or Alan Greenspan talking. We certainly can't complain about his vision. And think about not only what happened, but what didn't happen. Were reforms renounced, the military called out or a nationalist or communist appointed new prime minister? Any riots in the streets, strikes, social or economic disruptions of any sort? Heck, no, only a much higher volume of calls and faxes amongst the press and intellectual elites of the world trying to interpret and spin his latest action. Oddly, while the decision stunned and mystified some, it also appeased, soothed, relieved, inspired, and comforted others. The uniquely Russian way of doing things makes life interesting and never complacent. And Yeltsin's cogent abilities as a master political strategist should never be underestimated.
Businesses just continued to do what they have always done through any number of "crises" since 1991 and before. And that is to keep on plugging away with a watchful eye on the ball as it moves ahead.
Deborah Anne Palmieri
Russian Commerce News, March-April 1998
Copyright 1999 The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce®
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