Pre-election Jitters over the Outcome of Russia's Upcoming Presidential Elections

[Deb Palmieri on Russia Table of Contents]

The following article was published in the Russian Commerce News, May-June 1996. The Russian Commerce News is the official publication of The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce®.

Pre-Election Jitters

Pre-election jitters over the outcome of Russia's upcoming presidential elections have evoked curiously interesting and sometimes bewildering responses and behaviors in the United States and Russia. If you might have expected calm and confident projections by Russians on the future of democracy in their country - think again. Fears of impending "civil war" regardless of any election outcome have been expressed by some of Russia's most respected citizens, notably leaders of FIGs (financial and industrial groups), including Most, Oneximbank, Stolichny Bank and Menatap Bank to name a few. Many Russian pessimists and even the extremist Zhirinovsky are demanding cancellation of the elections in favor of forming a broad coalition government without elections. Political factions who articulate this untenable and most cynical of options naturally expect to secure high ranking ministerial posts in a reconstituted Yeltsin government. Many normally sensible Russians have become unnerved over the uncertainty of what the elections might yield and wild rumors abound suggesting doomsday scenarios and cataclysmic clashes among opposing factions. There are many Russians, clearly, who fall outside these categories and who maintain calm and reasoned perspectives about their own country's future and capabilities.

Now, from the American side. Had you expected U.S. companies, who normally prefer predictability coupled with certainty and eschew risks with a passion, to be consumed by anxiety over a possible communist victory and ready to pull up stakes following the final election results? If you thought yes, you would be wrong. Virtually all of the companies we questioned had the same response: "We're here to stay; let the politicians do their thing; business is business no matter who's in power." The head of America's largest mining project in Russia, for example, indicated that while he hoped there wouldn't be a return to communism, "if we do our job, and if we do a good job, we will be accepted." Another senior official of a major consumer goods joint venture said, "The political situation really doesn't matter to us. You just go in and do what you do, focus on your business and let the politicians do what they have to do." Of many major projects we are aware of, while some may now be in a holding pattern, few, if any, are voicing intentions of withdrawing from Russia, regardless of who wins the elections. Experienced and heavily invested American companies in Russia, for the most part, are optimistic and pragmatic about their Russian operations and are not flinching in the midst of a sea of gloom and doom election-related ruminations about impending chaos and disorder.

I continue to hold to my earlier prediction. Yeltsin will carry the election. He will win fair and square. (Cynics and opponents already unfairly accuse him of rigging results if he wins, or otherwise manipulating the election system to deviously and unscrupulously hold his position. They don't believe democracy would ever work.) Isn't it conceivable that Russia is capable of conducting fair and free elections; that its fledgling democracy could actually work? That formidable opponents can vigorously campaign and fight out political platforms in the public arena without risking the collapse of the country into anarchy, lawlessness and civil war? That Russians have learned something about governance and are responsible civic-minded citizens who will rise to the occasion, make the right voting decisions and abide by the laws of society and civilization? The answer is a resounding yes.

When the dust from the election settles, all of the panic-mongers, cynics, doom and gloom sayers should feel slightly sheepish and somewhat embarrassed. There is hope for Russia after all. State and government and maturing and reasonable people and democratic ideas can and will prevail.

Deborah Anne Palmieri
Russian Commerce News, May-June 1996