Is Primakov a Good Bet to Navigate Russia from Crisis to Recovery?

[Deb Palmieri on Russia Table of Contents]

The following article was published in the Russian Commerce News, October-November 1998. The Russian Commerce News is the official publication of The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce®.

Is Primakov a Good Bet to Navigate Russia from Crisis to Recovery?

Maybe Yevgeny Primakov didn't realize it, but when he accepted the post as Russia's latest prime minister, he took on the hardest job in the world, and certainly the most thankless. Did he realize the eyes of the world would be upon him, expecting instant solutions, immediate miracles and flawless strategies for structurally embedded problems that would leave breathless the Great Houdini, cadres of angels or rooms full of the most intelligent people in the world? Did he fully comprehend the meaning of "damned if you do", "damned if you don't"?

Well, we'll never know whether he did or didn't. He did remind us right off that he is no magician, and not to judge him by his first hundred days in his office. He made it clear also that he intended to think about problems before acting on them, no matter how much the press and pundits would hound him for instant economic plans, and criticize him as weak or indecisive when he didn't produce them on demand. He understood his main task, and that is to navigate a steady and stable course for Russia during the transition period from now to the presidential elections in summer 2000, no more, no less.

It would seem his long professional career prepared him uniquely for the job. He's a seasoned diplomat and recently served as foreign minister and by standards of his peers, a good one at that. He spent many years in high-level intelligence positions in the Soviet Union and Russia. (Hence the tag "spyman." He's not unlike our own George Bush, whose service as CIA head didn't deter anyone from thinking that he would make a good president. But there is really nothing "James Bond-like" about Primakov that I can see.) He researched, wrote and taught in the best think-tanks in his country. He was a journalist writing stories and features from abroad, especially the Middle East. Even his personal life steeled him for the rigors and demands of running the world's country closest to the brink of disaster. He lost his beloved wife and adult son to deadly heart disease. Those who know him understand how deep and profound was the grief and despair that nearly crushed him. But he got through it and what you have is a leader who can relate to personal loss, tragedy and is capable of compassion and feelings for the plight of people. Maybe that's why his first commitment is to paying back wage arrears, feeding people and easing the suffering of uncountable Russians hard-hit by the crisis. He feels their pain and wants to do something about it.

There are certain things he has going for him. The gangsters, mafia and assorted criminals are terrified of him. Some fled the country upon news of his appointment. He's vowed to put them all out of business. And the oligarchs are scared. He owes allegiance to none of them, so he can't be bought, bribed or manipulated. He is respected by people from all walks of life and all stripes of political hues. Primakov seems to grasp the fundamentals of democracy - "government of the people, by the people." So he put together a coalition government, that included young reformers like Zadornov, ex-Soviet officials and some communists. The Western press immediately raised the red flag and accused him of a return to the past, but he held to his instincts, which told him that everyone had to have a stake in the survival of Russia.

And finally, he has a sense of humor, a wry wit that can set a room laughing, a welcome relief from the drone of serious conversation. Even Madam Secretary Albright, despite sharp differences with him on many issues, can enjoy a light moment with him and the two once performed a singing duet much to the delight of onlookers.

Many worried that he's not an economist. That was one of the first stones critics cast against him and they wondered how he could possibly be equipped to tackle Russia's mighty economic woes. But most prime ministers or heads of state aren't economists either, and personally, for this fact we can thank our lucky stars. Given that he's not an economist, maybe there is a remote chance he can rescue the economy. Seasoned leaders rely on lots of advisors to point them in the right direction, especially on issues where they may lack experience. It's too early to tell, but let's hope that economic advice from the likes of Zadornov, Maslyukov, Shapovalyants, Gabunia and others in his new cabinet and intelligentsia can point him in the right direction. And let's be thankful he's wary of the monetarist school, the Harvard advisors, the IMF, and the like. Really, it's to his credit and not his detriment.

A report card on his first two months? I give him high marks for stabilizing a volatile political situation following the August 17 collapse and for successfully managing the October 7 demonstrations. He's trying his best to turn around the economy and financial situation and only time will tell. It's impossible to know for sure, but if I had to guess, I would say things will get better, and not worse. The progress will be painstakingly slow, but remember, an acutely ill patient doesn't improve overnight and neither does a stricken national economy. It just takes time, and a little help from one's friends. Which is why the U.S. and the West should help him and Russia in whatever way we can, including responding generously to requests for food aid; honoring commitments made for IMF loan money; extending other forms of recovery assistance and humanitarian aid such as medical supplies; and eliminating barriers for companies who want to help Russian economic development through foreign direct investment (FDI).

Primakov has made it clear that he favors long-term FDI and he will work the Russian end to promote a favorable tax climate and PSA legislation. Let's give him a chance to see if he can make good on these promises.

Meanwhile, the bottom-line. Is Primakov a good bet to navigate Russian challenges? I think he is. He's the best choice under very difficult and imperfect conditions. He's a calming influence and Russians feel safer with him at the helm, especially with an ailing president. We shouldn't expect perfection; naturally he'll make some mistakes. But his leadership qualities and track record suggest integrity, accountability, sincerity, evenhandedness and the willpower to pull Russia through. I will wager my bet on his navigation skills to steer Russia towards recovery in a moderate and stable way.

Deborah Anne Palmieri
Russian Commerce News, September-October 1998